Texas Tribune Poll Meets Reality

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More Accurate Texas Tribune Polling Methodology?

by R. G. Ratcliffe 

This is a follow up to my previous post on how everyone should take the University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll with a huge rock of salt. Not many people did in advance of the election. In fact, all of the state’s major papers, other than the Dallas Morning News, published the Tribune’s poll, which is about as responsible as publishing their journalism. The Washington Post and the New York Times also published the poll, lending it a level of credibility that ought to embarrass those two media giants.

Ratcliffe
Ratcliffe

Here is a comparison between the survey and the election results. I’ve left out some of the losing candidates for the sake of brevity, and note some of the election results may change slightly because of weather related voting problems. But in essence, the survey missed the election results time and again.

Arguably, the Democrats turned around their primary for U.S. Senate after the survey showed Rogers ahead, but undermining that argument is the fact the party leaders wanted Hugh Fitzsimons as the nominee for agriculture commissioner and he did not even make the runoff.

More Accurate Texas Tribune Polling Methodology?
More Accurate Texas Tribune Polling Methodology?

The smartest guys in the room are almost never as smart as they think they are. Just remember as you read this what national political observer Stu Rothenberg wrote about the U.T./Tribune polling methodology in Roll Call: “Buyer Beware.

The University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll versus Reality

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate

U.T./Tribune Poll
Kesha Rogers, 35 percent
David Alameel, 27 percent

Reality
Alameel, 47 percent
Rogers, 21 percent

Democratic primary for governor

U.T./Tribune Poll
Wendy Davis, 87 percent
Ray Madrigal, 13 percent

Reality
Davis 79 percent
Madrigal, 20 percent

GOP primary for lieutenant governor

U.T./Tribune Poll
David Dewhurst, 37 percent
Dan Patrick, 31 percent

Reality
Patrick, 41 percent
Dewhurst, 28 percent

GOP primary for comptroller

U.T./Tribune Poll
Debra Medina, 39 percent
Harvey Hilderbran, 26 percent
Glen Hegar, 24 percent
Raul Torres, 11 percent

Reality
Hegar, 49 percent
Hilderbran, 26 percent
Medina, 19 percent
Torres, 4.6 percent

GOP primary for attorney general

U.T./Tribune Poll
Dan Branch, 42 percent
Ken Paxton, 38 percent
Barry Smitherman, 20 percent

Reality
Branch 33 percent
Paxton, 44 percent
Smitherman, 22 percent

 

2 COMMENTS

  1. My apologies. I looked at the wrong numbers on my notepad in the Lieutenant Governor’s race. It should have been in the U.T. Tribune poll Dewhurst, 37 percent; Patrick, 31 percent, while in reality it was Patrick, 41 percent; Dewhurst, 28 percent.

  2. Welcome to The McTrib. “Real pork for real pork lovers”.

    Like its McDonald’s cousin McRib, The McTrib is made of “restructured pork” and “derived from lower-valued trimmings”. Like the McRib, you’re not supposed to know what goes in it, and, like the McRib, it’s really no longer a mystery meat. All you need to know is that you should avoid it and go for the real thing instead.

    The McTrib, as the McRib commercial says, is “real pork for real pork lovers”, and with the McTrib, you really do get what you pay for.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McRib —— http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hhQXIEZfk8

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